2018 NBA Draft Analytics

Probabilistic Draft Modeling

Jesse Fischer • June 10, 2018
Photo: graemea00

Anyone who has analyzed historical NBA draft picks should know that translating college success to the NBA is never a sure thing. No matter how good the scout, GM, or draft model, there is still a high level of uncertainty involved in predicting NBA success.

Therefore, my goal with this year's draft model is to highlight this uncertainty. By putting less emphasis on a single number, and more emphasis on the range of outcomes, our evaluation of players can be more representative of the roll of the dice that NBA teams actually face.

If you just want results, jump ahead to the 2018 rankings!



Modeling Details

Data

The models described below are based on custom statistics derived from player game log data1 while controlling for efficiency (minutes), level of competition (opponent), and situation (team). These are viewed as enhanced variations of pace and minute adjusted numbers, as they have an ability to better capture a players ability in situations where a coach (defensive system) or opponent (playing style) might be impacting statistical performance. Additionally, by factoring in individual game performances, strong (or weak) performances against the best competition are not lost in season averages. Other inputs also include scouting (high school ranking) and player characteristics (age, height, weight, combine).

Quant Model

Quant is a gradient boosting quantile regression model which predicts a players NBA peak single season win shares. By using a quantile regression model, it allows you to evaluate predictions across quantiles, highlighting differences in risk and upside.

By looking at the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile outcomes for a player we can see that a player like Markelle Fultz might have a slightly higher upside (q90) than Lonzo Ball, but a lower median expected outcome (q50).

Quant Example

APEX Model

While I recommend focusing on the full spectrum of Quant outcomes, I realize there are times when a single number is unavoidable (i.e. draft board rank). Therefore, APEX is a single number interpretation of Quant. Given that star players are so important in the NBA, APEX is calculated by averaging the higher upside outcomes (q75 and q90). In cases where a player has multiple season's worth of pre-NBA data, the players overall APEX value is a minute weighted average of all APEX values.

Below are the top 20 players as rated by APEX since 2002.

Historical Ranks

While there is room for improvement, historical (out of sample) results below show that, in general, performance is quite good.

Historical Results

Star Model

Star is a classification model which predicts the probability of being an All Star (star), Starter (start), Role Player (role), or Bust (bust).2 The advantage of the Star model is that the results are intuitive, however keep in mind that being a Starter or Role Player in the NBA is sometimes about situation and does not imply success or efficiency (which is what is captured in the Quant model).

Below you can see that Joel Embiid had a wide range of outcomes with a higher probability of becoming an NBA All Star, whereas Jabari Parker had a narrow range of outcomes and a smaller probability of becoming a bust.

Star Example

Comps

To give insight into playing style and combine comparables, I have a K-nearest neighbor model which shows historical players that are most similar. Below we can see that Trae Young and Steph Curry are indeed similar, however they do have some key differences in assists and steals.

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma


2018 Rankings

Top 60

Below you can see the top 60 APEX rated players and the complete Top 100 can be found here.

Top


Top Guards

Below is a heat map showing a players strengths and weaknesses which can help you understand why the models might view a player a particular way. See the glossary for any non-obvious column names. The complete list of Guards in the Top 100 can be found here.

Guards

Top Bigs

You can find the complete Top 100 here.

Forwards


All Star Potential

Below are the players with the highest NBA All Star potential probability.

Notice how Bamba has a high probability of being a solid starter, however a lower All Star potential compared to some other risker players.

All Star Potential


Mock Comparison

Here is how APEX views player ranks in comparison with various draft boards including ESPN, The Ringer, and Dean On Draft (all updated on 6/9). Contact me on Twitter if you think another ranking should be included. The table below is showing players who appeared in the Top 60 on any of the draft boards.

Mock Comparison


Player Profiles

Below you can find lots of information about top players including:

  1. Statistical Profile - visualize the strengths, weaknesses, and growth trajectory of individual players over their college careers
  2. Playing Style Comps - find the most similar player seasons compared to the potential draftees most recent season, which can keep you honest on a players expected outcome
  3. Combine Comps - find the most similar players in terms of physique and athleticism
  4. Draft Model Likes/Dislikes - gain a better understanding as to why my draft model might be ranking a player higher/lower than expected3

1. Wendell Carter Jr. - Duke

FR | F | 6-8 | 251 | rsci: 7 | s-ref | realgm Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. drb rate
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. ft shooting
  3. stl rate

2. Mohamed Bamba - Texas

FR | F | 6-11 | 225 | rsci: 4 | s-ref | realgm Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Statistical Profile

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Playing Style Comps

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Combine Comps

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. drb rate
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. weight
  3. tov rate

3. DeAndre Ayton - Arizona

FR | F | 6-11 | 247 | rsci: 3 | s-ref | realgm DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. drb rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. ast rate
  3. tov rate

4. Marvin Bagley III - Duke

FR | F | 6-9 | 231 | rsci: 1 | s-ref | realgm Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. age
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. height
  3. ast rate

5. Jaren Jackson Jr. - Michigan State

FR | F | 6-9 | 236 | rsci: 9 | s-ref | realgm Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. high school rank
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. ast rate

6. Trae Young - Oklahoma

FR | G | 6-0 | 177 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Statistical Profile

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Playing Style Comps

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Combine Comps

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ft shooting
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. weight
  3. drb rate

7. Michael Porter Jr. - Missouri

FR | F | 6-8 | 212 | rsci: 2 | s-ref | realgm Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Statistical Profile

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Playing Style Comps

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Combine Comps

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. high school rank
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. ast rate
  3. shooting efficiency

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Kentucky

FR | G | 6-4 | 180 | rsci: 30 | s-ref | realgm Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. weight
  2. age
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. drb rate
  3. high school rank

9. Brandon McCoy - UNLV

FR | F | 6-11 | 250 | rsci: 11 | s-ref | realgm Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Statistical Profile

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Playing Style Comps

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Combine Comps

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. drb rate
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. weight
  3. ast rate

10. Troy Brown - Oregon

FR | F | 6-5 | 208 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Statistical Profile

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Playing Style Comps

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Combine Comps

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. stl rate
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. tov rate
  3. high school rank

11. Miles Bridges - Michigan State

SO | G | 6-5 | 220 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ast rate
  3. high school rank

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. 2p shooting
  3. stl rate

12. Collin Sexton - Alabama

FR | G | 6-0 | 183 | rsci: 6 | s-ref | realgm Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Statistical Profile

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Playing Style Comps

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Combine Comps

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. age
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. stl rate

13. Kevin Knox - Kentucky

FR | F | 6-7 | 212 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. high school rank
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. ast rate
  3. 2p shooting

14. Robert Williams - Texas A&M

SO | F | 6-7 | 234 | rsci: 51 | s-ref | realgm Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Statistical Profile

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Playing Style Comps

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Combine Comps

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. age
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. tov rate
  3. ft shooting

15. Jarred Vanderbilt - Kentucky

FR | F | 6-7 | 211 | rsci: 13 | s-ref | realgm Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. high school rank
  3. shooting efficiency

16. Kevin Huerter - Maryland

SO | G | 6-6 | 194 | rsci: 53 | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Combine Comps

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. stl rate
  3. drb rate

17. Moritz Wagner - Michigan

JR | F | 6-10 | 241 | rsci: 97 | s-ref | realgm Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. ast rate
  3. high school rank

18. Mikal Bridges - Villanova

JR | G | 6-5 | 188 | rsci: 96 | s-ref | realgm Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. stl rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. age
  2. high school rank
  3. drb rate

19. Trevon Duval - Duke

FR | G | 6-1 | 191 | rsci: 5 | s-ref | realgm Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. stl rate
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. drb rate

20. Josh Okogie - Georgia Tech

SO | G | 6-3 | 210 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Statistical Profile

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Playing Style Comps

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Combine Comps

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. stl rate
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. high school rank

21. Chandler Hutchison - Boise State

SR | G | 6-5 | 187 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Statistical Profile

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Playing Style Comps

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Combine Comps

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft shooting
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. high school rank

22. Zhaire Smith - Texas Tech

FR | G | 6-2 | 198 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Statistical Profile

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Playing Style Comps

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Combine Comps

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. drb rate
  3. high school rank

23. Chimezie Metu - USC

JR | F | 6-8 | 219 | rsci: 35 | s-ref | realgm Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Statistical Profile

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Playing Style Comps

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Combine Comps

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. age
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. drb rate

24. Malik Newman - Kansas

SO | G | 6-2 | 189 | rsci: 8 | s-ref | realgm Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. drb rate
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. age
  2. 2p shooting
  3. height

25. Raymond Spalding - Louisville

JR | F | 6-9 | 215 | rsci: 41 | s-ref | realgm Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Statistical Profile

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Playing Style Comps

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Combine Comps

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ft shooting
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. age
  3. drb rate

26. Khyri Thomas - Creighton

JR | G | 6-2 | 198 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Statistical Profile

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Playing Style Comps

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Combine Comps

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. stl rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. drb rate
  3. high school rank

27. Kevin Hervey - Texas-Arlington

SR | F | 6-6 | 211 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Combine Comps

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Draft Model Likes

  1. tov rate
  2. weight
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. age
  3. high school rank

28. Rawle Alkins - Arizona

SO | G | 6-2 | 217 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. blk rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. weight
  3. shooting efficiency

29. Keita Bates-Diop - Ohio State

SR | F | 6-7 | 223 | rsci: 29 | s-ref | realgm Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Statistical Profile

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Playing Style Comps

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Combine Comps

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Draft Model Likes

  1. ast rate
  2. high school rank
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. stl rate
  3. age

30. Jalen Brunson - Villanova

JR | G | 6-1 | 198 | rsci: 19 | s-ref | realgm Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. ast rate
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. high school rank
  3. age

31. Landry Shamet - Wichita State

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Statistical Profile

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Playing Style Comps

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Combine Comps

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. ast rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. high school rank

32. Melvin Frazier - Tulane

JR | G | 6-4 | 198 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Statistical Profile

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Playing Style Comps

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Combine Comps

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. height
  3. high school rank

33. Grayson Allen - Duke

SR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 24 | s-ref | realgm Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. weight
  3. age

34. Allonzo Trier - Arizona

JR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. high school rank
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. age

35. Lonnie Walker - Miami (FL)

FR | G | 6-3 | 196 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Statistical Profile

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Playing Style Comps

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Combine Comps

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ast rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. high school rank

36. Bruce Brown - Miami (FL)

SO | G | 6-3 | 194 | rsci: 26 | s-ref | realgm Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Statistical Profile

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Playing Style Comps

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Combine Comps

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ft shooting
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

37. Shake Milton - SMU

JR | G | 6-4 | 207 | rsci: 89 | s-ref | realgm Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Statistical Profile

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Playing Style Comps

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Combine Comps

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. stl rate
  3. height

38. Jerome Robinson - Boston College

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Statistical Profile

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Playing Style Comps

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Combine Comps

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. weight
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. high school rank

39. Theo Pinson - UNC

SR | F | 6-5 | 211 | rsci: 15 | s-ref | realgm Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Statistical Profile

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Playing Style Comps

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Combine Comps

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. high school rank

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. ft shooting
  3. age

40. Donte DiVincenzo - Villanova

JR | G | 6-3 | 200 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. drb rate
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. stl rate
  3. high school rank

41. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - Kansas

SR | G | 6-6 | 211 | rsci: 95 | s-ref | realgm Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. ast rate
  2. height
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. high school rank
  3. drb rate

42. Thomas Welsh - UCLA

SR | C | 6-11 | 254 | rsci: 33 | s-ref | realgm Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Statistical Profile

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Playing Style Comps

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Combine Comps

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

43. Jacob Evans - Cincinnati

JR | G | 6-4 | 199 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Statistical Profile

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Playing Style Comps

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Combine Comps

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Draft Model Likes

  1. weight
  2. drb rate
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. high school rank

44. Aaron Holiday - UCLA

JR | G | 5-11 | 187 | rsci: 60 | s-ref | realgm Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Statistical Profile

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Playing Style Comps

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Combine Comps

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. ast rate
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. age

45. Tony Carr - Penn State

SO | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 43 | s-ref | realgm Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Statistical Profile

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Playing Style Comps

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Combine Comps

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. high school rank

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. stl rate
  3. shooting efficiency

46. Devonte' Graham - Kansas

SR | G | 6-0 | 186 | rsci: 65 | s-ref | realgm Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. blk rate
  3. pf rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. weight
  3. age

47. Isaac Haas - Purdue

SR | C | 7-1 | 303 | rsci: 82 | s-ref | realgm Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Statistical Profile

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Playing Style Comps

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Combine Comps

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft shooting
  2. blk rate
  3. pf rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. drb rate
  3. age

48. Yante Maten - Georgia

SR | F | 6-7 | 246 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Statistical Profile

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Playing Style Comps

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Combine Comps

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft shooting
  2. weight
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. age
  2. high school rank
  3. shooting efficiency

49. Keenan Evans - Texas Tech

SR | G | 6-1 | 183 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Statistical Profile

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Playing Style Comps

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Combine Comps

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. drb rate
  3. high school rank

50. Marcus Lee - University of California

SR | F | 6-9 | 211 | rsci: 18 | s-ref | realgm Marcus-Lee-2018-universi

Statistical Profile

Marcus-Lee-2018-universi

Playing Style Comps

Marcus-Lee-2018-universi

Combine Comps

Marcus-Lee-2018-universi

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. tov rate
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. drb rate
  3. age

51. Jevon Carter - West Virginia

SR | G | 6-0 | 196 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Statistical Profile

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Playing Style Comps

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Combine Comps

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. drb rate
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. high school rank
  3. age

52. Justin Jackson - Maryland

SO | F | 6-6 | 229 | rsci: 92 | s-ref | realgm Justin-Jackson-2018-maryland

Statistical Profile

Justin-Jackson-2018-maryland

Playing Style Comps

Justin-Jackson-2018-maryland

Combine Comps

Justin-Jackson-2018-maryland

Draft Model Likes

  1. height
  2. tov rate
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. age
  3. shooting efficiency

53. Omari Spellman - Villanova

FR | F | 6-8 | 253 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. tov rate
  2. stl rate
  3. blk rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. high school rank
  2. ft shooting
  3. age

54. Gary Trent Jr. - Duke

FR | G | 6-4 | 204 | rsci: 15 | s-ref | realgm Gary-Trent-Jr-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Gary-Trent-Jr-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Gary-Trent-Jr-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Gary-Trent-Jr-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. blk rate
  3. pf rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. weight
  3. ast rate

55. Kostas Antetokounmpo - Dayton

FR | F | 6-9 | 194 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Kostas-Antetokounmpo-2018-dayton

Statistical Profile

Kostas-Antetokounmpo-2018-dayton

Playing Style Comps

Kostas-Antetokounmpo-2018-dayton

Combine Comps

Kostas-Antetokounmpo-2018-dayton

Draft Model Likes

  1. weight
  2. tov rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 3p shooting
  2. pf rate
  3. high school rank

56. Hamidou Diallo - Kentucky

FR | G | 6-4 | 197 | rsci: 46 | s-ref | realgm Hamidou-Diallo-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Hamidou-Diallo-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Hamidou-Diallo-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Hamidou-Diallo-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. blk rate
  3. pf rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. high school rank

57. Devon Hall - Virginia

SR | G | 6-4 | 206 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm Devon-Hall-2018-virginia

Statistical Profile

Devon-Hall-2018-virginia

Playing Style Comps

Devon-Hall-2018-virginia

Combine Comps

Devon-Hall-2018-virginia

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. height
  3. age

58. George King - Colorado

SR | G | 6-4 | 218 | rsci: n/a | s-ref | realgm George-King-2018-colorado

Statistical Profile

George-King-2018-colorado

Playing Style Comps

George-King-2018-colorado

Combine Comps

George-King-2018-colorado

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. weight
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. stl rate
  3. age

59. Tyler Davis - Texas A&M

JR | C | 6-9 | 274 | rsci: 33 | s-ref | realgm Tyler-Davis-2018-texas-a&

Statistical Profile

Tyler-Davis-2018-texas-a&

Playing Style Comps

Tyler-Davis-2018-texas-a&

Combine Comps

Tyler-Davis-2018-texas-a&

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. age
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. weight
  3. ft shooting

60. Angel Delgado - Seton Hall

SR | C | 6-7 | 227 | rsci: 42 | s-ref | realgm Angel-Delgado-2018-seton-ha

Statistical Profile

Angel-Delgado-2018-seton-ha

Playing Style Comps

Angel-Delgado-2018-seton-ha

Combine Comps

Angel-Delgado-2018-seton-ha

Draft Model Likes

  1. high school rank
  2. 2p shooting
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. weight
  3. shooting efficiency

Glossary

  • q25 = predicted 25th percentile outcome
  • q50 = predicted 50th percentile outcome
  • q75 = predicted 75th percentile outcome
  • q90 = predicted 90th percentile outcome
  • apex = average of q75 and q90
  • rsci = high school rank
  • max_ws = max single season win shares in the NBA
  • star = NBA All Star probability
  • start = NBA Starter probability (starter for >60 NBA games in a season)
  • role = NBA Role Player probability (played in >60 NBA games in a season)
  • bust = NBA Bust probability
  • ht = Height
  • wt = Weight
  • gs = Games Started
  • gp = Games Played
  • mpg = Minutes Per Game
  • ts = True Shooting Percentage
  • efg = Effective Field Goal Percentage
  • 3par = 3 Point Attempt Rate
  • ftr = Free Throw Rate
  • usg = Usage Rate
  • bpm = Box Plus Minus
  • srs = Team Quality (custom metric)
  • sos = Strength of Schedule (custom metric)
  • pk = NBA Draft Pick
  • sim = Player Similarity
  1. Older years do not have college game log data available, therefore the game log metrics are imputed.

  2. The definition of All Star is self-explanatory, whereas I arbitrarily defined Starter as having started 60 games in a NBA season, Role Player as having played 60 games in a NBA season, and Bust as everyone else.

  3. The like/dislike information is automatically generated by creating different models without certain pieces of data to see how a players prediction changes. It is not always perfect because of collinearity but I think I have got it tuned to do a pretty decent job at highlighting strengths and weaknesses. Let me know if you any results seem strange.