2018 NBA Draft Analytics

Probabilistic Draft Modeling

Jesse Fischer • June 10, 2018
Photo: graemea00

Anyone who has analyzed historical NBA draft picks should know that translating college success to the NBA is never a sure thing. No matter how good the scout, GM, or draft model, there is still a high level of uncertainty involved in predicting NBA success.

Therefore, my goal with this year's draft model is to highlight this uncertainty. By putting less emphasis on a single number, and more emphasis on the range of outcomes, our evaluation of players can be more representative of the roll of the dice that NBA teams actually face.

If you just want results, jump ahead to the 2018 rankings!



Modeling Details

Data

The models described below are based on custom statistics derived from player game log data1 while controlling for efficiency (minutes), level of competition (opponent), and situation (team). These are viewed as enhanced variations of pace and minute adjusted numbers, as they have an ability to better capture a players ability in situations where a coach (defensive system) or opponent (playing style) might be impacting statistical performance. Additionally, by factoring in individual game performances, strong (or weak) performances against the best competition are not lost in season averages. Other inputs also include scouting (high school ranking) and player characteristics (age, height, weight, combine).

Quant Model

Quant is a gradient boosting quantile regression model which predicts a players NBA peak single season win shares. By using a quantile regression model, it allows you to evaluate predictions across quantiles, highlighting differences in risk and upside.

By looking at the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile outcomes for a player we can see that a player like Markelle Fultz might have a slightly higher upside (q90) than Jayson Tatum, but a slightly lower median expected outcome (q50).

Quant Example

APEX Model

While I recommend focusing on the full spectrum of Quant outcomes, I realize there are times when a single number is unavoidable (i.e. draft board rank). Therefore, APEX is a single number interpretation of Quant. Given that star players are so important in the NBA, APEX is calculated by averaging the higher upside outcomes (q75 and q90). In cases where a player has multiple season's worth of pre-NBA data, the players overall APEX value is a minute weighted average of all APEX values.

Below are the top 25 players as rated by APEX.

Historical Ranks

While there is room for improvement, historical (out of sample) results below show that, in general, performance is quite good.

Historical Results

Star Model

Star is a classification model which predicts the probability of being an All Star (star), Starter (start), Role Player (role), or Bust (bust).2 The advantage of the Star model is that the results are intuitive, however keep in mind that being a Starter or Role Player in the NBA is sometimes about situation and does not imply success or efficiency (which is what is captured in the Quant model).

Below you can see that Greg Oden had a wide range of outcomes with a higher probability of being either a bust or a star, whereas Kevin Durant had a more narrow range of outcomes and a smaller probability of becoming a bust.

Star Example

Comps

To give insight into playing style and NBA combine comparables, I have a K-nearest neighbor model which shows historical players that are most similar. Below we can see that Trae Young and Steph Curry are indeed similar, however they do have some key differences in assists and steals.

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma


2018 Rankings

Top 60

Below you can see the top 60 APEX rated players and the complete Top 100 can be found here.

Top


Top Guards

Below is a heat map showing a players strengths and weaknesses which can help you understand why the models might view a player a particular way. See the glossary for any non-obvious column names. The complete list of Guards in the Top 100 can be found here.

Guards

Top Bigs

You can find the complete Top 100 here.

Forwards


All Star Potential

Below are the players with the highest NBA All Star potential probability.

Notice how Shai has a high probability of being a solid starter, however a lower All Star potential compared to some other risker players.

All Star Potential


Mock Comparison

Here is how APEX ranks players in comparison with various draft boards (all updated on 6/18):

Contact me on Twitter if you think another ranking should be included. The table includes players who appeared in the Top 60 on any of the draft boards.

Mock Comparison


Player Profiles

Below you can find lots of information about top players including:

  1. Statistical Profile - visualize the strengths, weaknesses, and growth trajectory of individual players over their college careers
  2. Playing Style Comps - find the most similar player seasons compared to the potential draftees most recent season, which can keep you honest on a players expected outcome
  3. Combine Comps - find the most similar players in terms of physique and athleticism
  4. Draft Model Likes/Dislikes - gain a better understanding as to why my draft model might be ranking a player higher/lower than expected3

1. Wendell Carter Jr. - Duke

FR | F | 6-8 | 251 | rsci: 7 | s-ref | realgm Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Wendell-Carter-Jr-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. drb rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 3p rate
  2. scoring rate
  3. stl rate

2. Jaren Jackson Jr. - Michigan State

FR | F | 6-9 | 236 | rsci: 9 | s-ref | realgm Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Jaren-Jackson-Jr-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 3p rate
  2. stl rate
  3. ast rate

3. Trae Young - Oklahoma

FR | G | 6-0 | 177 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Statistical Profile

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Playing Style Comps

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Combine Comps

Trae-Young-2018-oklahoma

Draft Model Likes

  1. scoring rate
  2. age
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

4. Luka Doncic - Real Madrid

G | 6-6 | 225 | s-ref | realgm Luka-Doncic-2018-real-mad

Statistical Profile

Luka-Doncic-2018-real-mad

Playing Style Comps

Luka-Doncic-2018-real-mad

Combine Comps

Luka-Doncic-2018-real-mad

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. 2p shooting
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 3p shooting
  2. scoring rate
  3. stl rate

5. DeAndre Ayton - Arizona

FR | F | 6-11 | 247 | rsci: 3 | s-ref | realgm DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

DeAndre-Ayton-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. drb rate
  3. scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. ft rate
  3. ft shooting

6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Kentucky

FR | G | 6-4 | 180 | rsci: 30 | s-ref | realgm Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. age
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. ft shooting
  3. shooting efficiency

7. Troy Brown - Oregon

FR | F | 6-5 | 208 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Statistical Profile

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Playing Style Comps

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Combine Comps

Troy-Brown-2018-oregon

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. stl rate
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. scoring rate

8. Dzanan Musa - Cedevita

G | 6-7 | 192 | s-ref | realgm Dzanan-Musa-2018-cedevita

Statistical Profile

Dzanan-Musa-2018-cedevita

Playing Style Comps

Dzanan-Musa-2018-cedevita

Combine Comps

Dzanan-Musa-2018-cedevita

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. height
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. drb rate

9. Marvin Bagley III - Duke

FR | F | 6-9 | 231 | rsci: 1 | s-ref | realgm Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Marvin-Bagley-III-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. drb rate
  3. stl rate

10. Miles Bridges - Michigan State

SO | G | 6-5 | 220 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Miles-Bridges-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ast rate
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. scoring rate
  2. stl rate
  3. ft rate

11. Robert Williams - Texas A&M

SO | F | 6-7 | 234 | rsci: 51 | s-ref | realgm Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Statistical Profile

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Playing Style Comps

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Combine Comps

Robert-Williams-2018-texas-a&

Draft Model Likes

  1. ast rate
  2. drb rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. ft rate
  3. age

12. De'Anthony Melton - USC

FR | G | 6-2 | 193 | s-ref | realgm DeAnthony-Melton-2017-usc

Statistical Profile

DeAnthony-Melton-2017-usc

Playing Style Comps

DeAnthony-Melton-2017-usc

Combine Comps

DeAnthony-Melton-2017-usc

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. stl rate
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. ft shooting
  3. scoring rate

13. Mohamed Bamba - Texas

FR | F | 6-11 | 225 | rsci: 4 | s-ref | realgm Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Statistical Profile

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Playing Style Comps

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Combine Comps

Mohamed-Bamba-2018-texas

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. drb rate
  3. shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. ft rate
  3. ast rate

14. Rodions Kurucs - FC Barcelona Lassa

F | 6-8 | 187 | s-ref | realgm Rodions-Kurucs-2017-fc-barce

Statistical Profile

Rodions-Kurucs-2017-fc-barce

Playing Style Comps

Rodions-Kurucs-2017-fc-barce

Combine Comps

Rodions-Kurucs-2017-fc-barce

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. age
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. ft rate
  3. drb rate

15. Kevin Huerter - Maryland

SO | G | 6-6 | 194 | rsci: 53 | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Combine Comps

Kevin-Huerter-2018-maryland

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. scoring rate
  3. drb rate

16. Zhaire Smith - Texas Tech

FR | G | 6-2 | 198 | s-ref | realgm Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Statistical Profile

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Playing Style Comps

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Combine Comps

Zhaire-Smith-2018-texas-te

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. height
  3. drb rate

17. Mikal Bridges - Villanova

JR | G | 6-5 | 188 | rsci: 96 | s-ref | realgm Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Mikal-Bridges-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. height
  3. age

18. Jarred Vanderbilt - Kentucky

FR | F | 6-7 | 211 | rsci: 13 | s-ref | realgm Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Jarred-Vanderbilt-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ast rate
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

19. Brandon McCoy - UNLV

FR | F | 6-11 | 250 | rsci: 11 | s-ref | realgm Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Statistical Profile

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Playing Style Comps

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Combine Comps

Brandon-McCoy-2018-unlv

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. scoring rate
  3. 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. ast rate
  3. shooting efficiency

20. Moritz Wagner - Michigan

JR | F | 6-10 | 241 | rsci: 97 | s-ref | realgm Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Statistical Profile

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Playing Style Comps

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Combine Comps

Moritz-Wagner-2018-michigan

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. 3p shooting
  3. ast rate

21. Chandler Hutchison - Boise State

SR | G | 6-5 | 187 | s-ref | realgm Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Statistical Profile

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Playing Style Comps

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Combine Comps

Chandler-Hutchison-2018-boise-st

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. ft rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

22. Josh Okogie - Georgia Tech

SO | G | 6-3 | 210 | s-ref | realgm Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Statistical Profile

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Playing Style Comps

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Combine Comps

Josh-Okogie-2018-georgia-

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. scoring rate
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

23. Landry Shamet - Wichita State

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | s-ref | realgm Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Statistical Profile

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Playing Style Comps

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Combine Comps

Landry-Shamet-2018-wichita-

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. age
  2. stl rate
  3. scoring rate

24. Elie Okobo - Pau-Lacq-Orthez

G | 6-1 | 177 | s-ref | realgm Elie-Okobo-2018-pau-lacq

Statistical Profile

Elie-Okobo-2018-pau-lacq

Playing Style Comps

Elie-Okobo-2018-pau-lacq

Combine Comps

Elie-Okobo-2018-pau-lacq

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. weight
  3. stl rate

25. Kevin Hervey - Texas-Arlington

SR | F | 6-6 | 211 | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Combine Comps

Kevin-Hervey-2018-texas-ar

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ft shooting
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. scoring rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. age

26. Kevin Knox - Kentucky

FR | F | 6-7 | 212 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Statistical Profile

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Playing Style Comps

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Combine Comps

Kevin-Knox-2018-kentucky

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. height
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. stl rate
  2. scoring rate
  3. ast rate

27. Collin Sexton - Alabama

FR | G | 6-0 | 183 | rsci: 6 | s-ref | realgm Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Statistical Profile

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Playing Style Comps

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Combine Comps

Collin-Sexton-2018-alabama

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. scoring rate
  3. 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. drb rate
  3. stl rate

28. Michael Porter Jr. - Missouri

FR | F | 6-9 | 211 | rsci: 2 | s-ref | realgm Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Statistical Profile

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Playing Style Comps

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Combine Comps

Michael-Porter-Jr-2018-missouri

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. age
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. shooting efficiency

29. Khyri Thomas - Creighton

JR | G | 6-2 | 198 | s-ref | realgm Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Statistical Profile

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Playing Style Comps

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Combine Comps

Khyri-Thomas-2018-creighto

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. drb rate
  3. age

30. Williams Narace - Nancy

F | 6-6 | 202 | s-ref | realgm Williams-Narace-2017-nancy

Statistical Profile

Williams-Narace-2017-nancy

Playing Style Comps

Williams-Narace-2017-nancy

Combine Comps

Williams-Narace-2017-nancy

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. age
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. height
  3. ast rate

31. Jerome Robinson - Boston College

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | s-ref | realgm Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Statistical Profile

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Playing Style Comps

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Combine Comps

Jerome-Robinson-2018-boston-c

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. age
  2. drb rate
  3. stl rate

32. Chimezie Metu - USC

JR | F | 6-8 | 219 | rsci: 35 | s-ref | realgm Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Statistical Profile

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Playing Style Comps

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Combine Comps

Chimezie-Metu-2018-usc

Draft Model Likes

  1. height
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ast rate
  2. stl rate
  3. drb rate

33. Alize Johnson - Missouri State

SO | F | 6-7 | 216 | s-ref | realgm Alize-Johnson-2018-missouri

Statistical Profile

Alize-Johnson-2018-missouri

Playing Style Comps

Alize-Johnson-2018-missouri

Combine Comps

Alize-Johnson-2018-missouri

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. stl rate
  3. age

34. Melvin Frazier - Tulane

JR | G | 6-4 | 198 | s-ref | realgm Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Statistical Profile

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Playing Style Comps

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Combine Comps

Melvin-Frazier-2018-tulane

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. scoring rate
  3. age

35. Jacob Evans - Cincinnati

JR | G | 6-4 | 199 | s-ref | realgm Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Statistical Profile

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Playing Style Comps

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Combine Comps

Jacob-Evans-2018-cincinna

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft rate
  2. stl rate
  3. 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. scoring rate
  3. age

36. Keenan Evans - Texas Tech

SR | G | 6-1 | 183 | s-ref | realgm Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Statistical Profile

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Playing Style Comps

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Combine Comps

Keenan-Evans-2018-texas-te

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. stl rate
  3. age

37. Tryggvi Hlinason - Valencia Basket

F | 6-11 | 252 | s-ref | realgm Tryggvi-Hlinason-2018-valencia

Statistical Profile

Tryggvi-Hlinason-2018-valencia

Playing Style Comps

Tryggvi-Hlinason-2018-valencia

Combine Comps

Tryggvi-Hlinason-2018-valencia

Draft Model Likes

  1. scoring rate
  2. stl rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. ft shooting
  3. drb rate

38. Rawle Alkins - Arizona

SO | G | 6-2 | 217 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

Rawle-Alkins-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ft rate
  3. 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. 2p shooting
  3. shooting efficiency

39. Raymond Spalding - Louisville

JR | F | 6-9 | 215 | rsci: 41 | s-ref | realgm Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Statistical Profile

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Playing Style Comps

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Combine Comps

Raymond-Spalding-2018-louisvil

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. height
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. drb rate
  3. age

40. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - Kansas

SR | G | 6-6 | 211 | rsci: 95 | s-ref | realgm Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Sviatoslav-Mykhailiuk-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. drb rate
  3. shooting efficiency

41. Keita Bates-Diop - Ohio State

SR | F | 6-7 | 223 | rsci: 29 | s-ref | realgm Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Statistical Profile

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Playing Style Comps

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Combine Comps

Keita-Bates-Diop-2018-ohio-sta

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. stl rate
  3. age

42. Trevon Duval - Duke

FR | G | 6-1 | 191 | rsci: 5 | s-ref | realgm Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Trevon-Duval-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. age
  3. ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. drb rate

43. Jalen Brunson - Villanova

JR | G | 6-1 | 198 | rsci: 19 | s-ref | realgm Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Jalen-Brunson-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. weight
  2. age
  3. stl rate

44. Grayson Allen - Duke

SR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 24 | s-ref | realgm Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Statistical Profile

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Playing Style Comps

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Combine Comps

Grayson-Allen-2018-duke

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ft rate
  3. 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. scoring rate
  3. age

45. Yante Maten - Georgia

SR | F | 6-7 | 246 | s-ref | realgm Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Statistical Profile

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Playing Style Comps

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Combine Comps

Yante-Maten-2018-georgia

Draft Model Likes

  1. scoring rate
  2. ast rate
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. usg rate
  2. age
  3. stl rate

46. Kenrich Williams - Texas Christian

JR | G | 6-6 | 200 | s-ref | realgm Kenrich-Williams-2018-texas-ch

Statistical Profile

Kenrich-Williams-2018-texas-ch

Playing Style Comps

Kenrich-Williams-2018-texas-ch

Combine Comps

Kenrich-Williams-2018-texas-ch

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. scoring rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

47. Shake Milton - SMU

JR | G | 6-4 | 207 | rsci: 89 | s-ref | realgm Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Statistical Profile

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Playing Style Comps

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Combine Comps

Shake-Milton-2018-smu

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. ft rate
  3. 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. age
  3. 2p shooting

48. Donte DiVincenzo - Villanova

JR | G | 6-3 | 200 | s-ref | realgm Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Donte-DiVincenzo-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. scoring rate
  3. age

49. Lonnie Walker - Miami (FL)

FR | G | 6-3 | 196 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Statistical Profile

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Playing Style Comps

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Combine Comps

Lonnie-Walker-2018-miami-f

Draft Model Likes

  1. age
  2. ast rate
  3. weight

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. drb rate

50. Malik Newman - Kansas

SO | G | 6-2 | 189 | rsci: 8 | s-ref | realgm Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Malik-Newman-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. drb rate
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 3p shooting
  2. height
  3. age

51. Thomas Welsh - UCLA

SR | C | 6-11 | 254 | rsci: 33 | s-ref | realgm Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Statistical Profile

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Playing Style Comps

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Combine Comps

Thomas-Welsh-2018-ucla

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. height
  3. stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft rate
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

52. Aaron Holiday - UCLA

JR | G | 5-11 | 187 | rsci: 60 | s-ref | realgm Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Statistical Profile

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Playing Style Comps

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Combine Comps

Aaron-Holiday-2018-ucla

Draft Model Likes

  1. weight
  2. ast rate
  3. height

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. ft shooting
  2. drb rate
  3. age

53. Theo Pinson - UNC

SR | F | 6-5 | 211 | rsci: 15 | s-ref | realgm Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Statistical Profile

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Playing Style Comps

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Combine Comps

Theo-Pinson-2018-unc

Draft Model Likes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. tov rate
  2. weight
  3. age

54. Bruce Brown - Miami (FL)

SO | G | 6-3 | 194 | rsci: 26 | s-ref | realgm Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Statistical Profile

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Playing Style Comps

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Combine Comps

Bruce-Brown-2018-miami-f

Draft Model Likes

  1. drb rate
  2. weight
  3. ft rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. scoring rate
  3. age

55. Allonzo Trier - Arizona

JR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Statistical Profile

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Playing Style Comps

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Combine Comps

Allonzo-Trier-2018-arizona

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. height
  2. stl rate
  3. age

56. Jevon Carter - West Virginia

SR | G | 6-0 | 196 | s-ref | realgm Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Statistical Profile

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Playing Style Comps

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Combine Comps

Jevon-Carter-2018-west-vir

Draft Model Likes

  1. stl rate
  2. drb rate
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. 2p shooting
  3. age

57. Tony Carr - Penn State

SO | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 43 | s-ref | realgm Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Statistical Profile

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Playing Style Comps

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Combine Comps

Tony-Carr-2018-penn-sta

Draft Model Likes

  1. ast rate
  2. age
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. stl rate
  3. 2p shooting

58. Isaac Haas - Purdue

SR | C | 7-1 | 303 | rsci: 82 | s-ref | realgm Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Statistical Profile

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Playing Style Comps

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Combine Comps

Isaac-Haas-2018-purdue

Draft Model Likes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. drb rate
  2. ast rate
  3. age

59. Devonte' Graham - Kansas

SR | G | 6-0 | 186 | rsci: 65 | s-ref | realgm Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Statistical Profile

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Playing Style Comps

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Combine Comps

Devonte-Graham-2018-kansas

Draft Model Likes

  1. ast rate
  2. height
  3. tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. 2p shooting
  2. shooting efficiency
  3. age

60. Omari Spellman - Villanova

FR | F | 6-8 | 253 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Statistical Profile

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Playing Style Comps

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Combine Comps

Omari-Spellman-2018-villanov

Draft Model Likes

  1. ft shooting
  2. drb rate
  3. 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

  1. shooting efficiency
  2. age
  3. weight

Glossary

  • q25 = predicted 25th percentile outcome
  • q50 = predicted 50th percentile outcome
  • q75 = predicted 75th percentile outcome
  • q90 = predicted 90th percentile outcome
  • apex = average of q75 and q90
  • rsci = high school rank
  • max_ws = max single season win shares in the NBA
  • star = NBA All Star probability
  • start = NBA Starter probability (starter for >60 NBA games in a season)
  • role = NBA Role Player probability (played in >60 NBA games in a season)
  • bust = NBA Bust probability
  • ht = Height
  • wt = Weight
  • gs = Games Started
  • gp = Games Played
  • mpg = Minutes Per Game
  • ts = True Shooting Percentage
  • efg = Effective Field Goal Percentage
  • 3par = 3 Point Attempt Rate
  • ftr = Free Throw Rate
  • usg = Usage Rate
  • bpm = Box Plus Minus
  • srs = Team Quality (custom metric)
  • sos = Strength of Schedule (custom metric)
  • pk = NBA Draft Pick
  • sim = Player Similarity
  1. Older years do not have college game log data available, therefore the game log metrics are imputed.

  2. The definition of All Star is self-explanatory, whereas I arbitrarily defined Starter as having started 60 games in a NBA season, Role Player as having played 60 games in a NBA season, and Bust as everyone else.

  3. The like/dislike information is automatically generated by creating different models without certain pieces of data to see how a players prediction changes. It is not always perfect because of collinearity but I think I have got it tuned to do a pretty decent job at highlighting strengths and weaknesses. Let me know if you any results seem strange.