Which draft classes spent the most time in the league?
Judging draft classes by their career longevity and earnings
Viraj Sanghvi
• September 3, 2014
Taking a break from looking at the value of height in the NBA over time, I wanted to post some interseting stuff I came across. We all know there are some amazing draft classes, and … some not so great ones1. I wanted to see if this became obvious if we just looked at the average of "success" metrics, namely career length and earnings, and through this process identify which classes played the most, and earned the most.
Cutting right to it, here's a look at the average career length by draft class:
Quick observations:
- Early on, great classes came in waves.
- In the 90s, we've seen some classes that have stuck around for a longer time than average.
- Medical advancements, earning potential, and the decrease in hard-drug culture2, likely extended careers that would have otherwise lasted longer.
- The data after ~2000 isn't particularly meaningful as some of those careers are ongoing, and so the averages will change.
And here's a look at average annual earnings by draft class (adjusted for inflation to 2014 USD):
Quick observations:
- Obviously, salaries drastically change as of the mid-90s.
- No, you remembered correctly, 2000 was a pretty awful draft1.
- The declining average salary after the mid-2000s is just due to the fact that those players are still playing, and may not have reached their higher paying prime years.
- That peak? The great 1996 NBA Draft Class.
- That 2003 NBA Draft Class will likely catch up.
As for the actual data, take a look at earnings and career length by overall pick:
| Overall Pick | Total salary | Yearly Salary Mean | Yearly Salary Std. Dev. | Seasons Played Mean | Seasons Played Std. Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3373868483.2 | 7482062.6 | 4569466.6 | 11.5 | 4.6 |
| 2 | 2345269291.4 | 6152193.7 | 3190468.3 | 10.7 | 4.9 |
| 3 | 2351721691.0 | 5990436.0 | 3560351.7 | 10.5 | 4.8 |
| 4 | 2060845911.2 | 5141501.7 | 3618928.2 | 10.4 | 4.6 |
| 5 | 2290050381.2 | 5080324.4 | 3996939.4 | 10.8 | 5.0 |
| 6 | 1130971681.9 | 3707697.1 | 2674230.9 | 9.0 | 3.8 |
| 7 | 1439721138.0 | 3957330.8 | 2457850.1 | 10 | 3.8 |
| 8 | 1317725562.6 | 3680621.7 | 2348242.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 |
| 9 | 1526802248.3 | 3954727.7 | 3595009.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 |
| 10 | 1515272229.9 | 4195033.4 | 3244744.6 | 9.5 | 4.8 |
| 11 | 1164712716.2 | 3180225.4 | 2403554.4 | 9.6 | 5.1 |
| 12 | 705807892.2 | 2499919.5 | 1361382.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 |
| 13 | 1372962770.0 | 3558097.9 | 3518624.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 |
| 14 | 791398852.7 | 2590210.2 | 1829085.9 | 8.0 | 5.0 |
| 15 | 763986393.2 | 2569513.8 | 2184596.3 | 8.1 | 4.6 |
| 16 | 679586212.5 | 2190883.9 | 1712396.2 | 7.9 | 4.6 |
| 17 | 906002167.8 | 3056835.9 | 2713184.1 | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| 18 | 784720586.6 | 2439269.4 | 1800093.9 | 8.0 | 4.9 |
| 19 | 613657205.8 | 2233882.8 | 2022571.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 |
| 20 | 598117176.5 | 2083109.1 | 1941470.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 |
| 21 | 741349591.8 | 2427832.5 | 1999709.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 |
| 22 | 347123538.5 | 1512906.7 | 1211205.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| 23 | 606051653.2 | 2277269.7 | 1449955.7 | 8.4 | 4.2 |
| 24 | 777950238.2 | 2620866.2 | 2502268.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 |
| 25 | 449934732.6 | 1886381.1 | 1632066.5 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 26 | 606522327.4 | 2230387.2 | 2301816.8 | 6 | 4.2 |
| 27 | 419120499.1 | 1820091.1 | 1487211.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 |
| 28 | 454434419.9 | 1978607.6 | 1998691.4 | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| 29 | 520978647.7 | 1962273.0 | 1719381.1 | 8.2 | 5.0 |
| 30 | 525334635.7 | 2171099.4 | 2764838.4 | 6.2 | 4.7 |
| 31 | 226835961.8 | 1517900.3 | 1627268.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| 32 | 323146343.4 | 1508348.3 | 2219325.8 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| 33 | 217030479.9 | 1112339.7 | 1171526.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 34 | 277990981.7 | 1398398.8 | 2418680.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 35 | 186594048.9 | 1080049.9 | 1356318.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| 36 | 235408138.1 | 1383801.0 | 1606510.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| 37 | 348926840.8 | 1517677.7 | 2103376.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| 38 | 212852909.3 | 1484820.3 | 1158496.3 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| 39 | 158650257.1 | 992123.7 | 1046023.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| 40 | 197687657.2 | 1349889.6 | 1689316.5 | 6 | 4.2 |
| 41 | 238802581.1 | 1204145.9 | 1611077.3 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| 42 | 223377815.5 | 1579139.2 | 1978735.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| 43 | 354428256.8 | 1887895.4 | 2409525.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 |
| 44 | 159087001.1 | 1181234.0 | 1363638.5 | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| 45 | 376309912.8 | 1737031.1 | 2099727.7 | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| 46 | 141217420.9 | 847826.0 | 922403.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| 47 | 302574168.0 | 1720330.5 | 1934826.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| 48 | 193742324.6 | 1695232.3 | 2131317.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| 49 | 127657483.4 | 1095656.3 | 979743.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 |
| 50 | 100563526.5 | 1013770.8 | 934113.5 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| 51 | 98592209.1 | 1232042.2 | 1465037.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 52 | 84679877.3 | 755338.5 | 598865.0 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 53 | 104141443.4 | 910607.8 | 1115670.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 54 | 152618878.9 | 1718911.7 | 1846456.6 | 6.1 | 4.3 |
| 55 | 74499203.5 | 1111587.8 | 1347936.6 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| 56 | 72272841.9 | 1073030.6 | 1383775.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| 57 | 173848566.5 | 2354489.3 | 3335409.7 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| 58 | 27135293.7 | 599577.5 | 450898.7 | 5.3 | 5 |
| 59 | 5248655.0 | 615951.2 | 470306.9 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 60 | 17264876.3 | 881668.1 | 668576.1 | 4 | 3.5 |
And by draft class:
| Draft | Total salary | Yearly Salary Mean | Yearly Salary Std. Dev. | Seasons Played Mean | Seasons Played Std. Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1974 | 8508579.1 | 833306.3 | 492682.5 | 11.4 | 1.1 |
| 1975 | 13530151.9 | 1114677.0 | 419702.2 | 11.8 | 1.3 |
| 1976 | 73906505.8 | 1558259.8 | 1106357.1 | 13.2 | 3.9 |
| 1977 | 89078274.0 | 1135645.2 | 835216.0 | 12 | 3.7 |
| 1978 | 96994051.2 | 1247433.0 | 991643.4 | 11.5 | 2.5 |
| 1979 | 129926186.2 | 1099770.2 | 969136.0 | 10.8 | 2.9 |
| 1980 | 124125646.8 | 1053362.1 | 785121.7 | 10.3 | 3.7 |
| 1981 | 286968244.4 | 1135718.9 | 935457.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 |
| 1982 | 252566891.4 | 993131.3 | 798071.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 |
| 1983 | 354962118.3 | 1197138.1 | 1001431.2 | 10.0 | 4.6 |
| 1984 | 802392523.4 | 1673164.3 | 2378433.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 |
| 1985 | 1051351289.0 | 1610716.0 | 2083384.1 | 8.4 | 5.9 |
| 1986 | 587188381.5 | 1350478.4 | 1488152.0 | 7.3 | 4.3 |
| 1987 | 1055617529.6 | 1985928.3 | 2582851.1 | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| 1988 | 954192360.4 | 1837507.3 | 1573897.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 |
| 1989 | 1059776050.7 | 2275860.2 | 2168962.4 | 8.7 | 5.0 |
| 1990 | 1337286967.5 | 2284267.8 | 2300135.4 | 8.3 | 4.3 |
| 1991 | 1186921160.3 | 2510378.4 | 2448296.8 | 7.7 | 4.7 |
| 1992 | 1739567205.7 | 3031112.0 | 3680902.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| 1993 | 1522491756.9 | 3135118.0 | 3304621.1 | 8.0 | 5.1 |
| 1994 | 1731970389.4 | 3362002.2 | 3175812.6 | 8.7 | 4.7 |
| 1995 | 2087129778.9 | 3421698.6 | 3878980.2 | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| 1996 | 2766749439.7 | 4425161.7 | 4641720.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 |
| 1997 | 1877403789.1 | 3530203.4 | 3456860.6 | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| 1998 | 2316323602.8 | 3492342.3 | 3587561.4 | 8.3 | 4.8 |
| 1999 | 2030572449.1 | 3829141.3 | 3539150.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| 2000 | 1427253420.4 | 2798131.6 | 2417821.8 | 7.7 | 4.2 |
| 2001 | 2216476823.7 | 4005722.3 | 3833278.6 | 8.0 | 4.7 |
| 2002 | 1344830669.9 | 3115334.7 | 3130623.5 | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| 2003 | 1802323147.8 | 3939772.7 | 3294288.3 | 8.1 | 3.7 |
| 2004 | 1452211437.1 | 3554876.8 | 3210625.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 |
| 2005 | 1368048672.1 | 3123730.1 | 2820766.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 |
| 2006 | 787022303.8 | 2477480.4 | 2396700.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 803151792.3 | 2808015.5 | 2437658.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 |
| 2008 | 844432894.2 | 3193803.9 | 2349625.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 2009 | 523617207.7 | 2326377.5 | 1689208.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| 2010 | 319900875.7 | 1804203.4 | 1420561.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 2011 | 229657816.3 | 1635072.5 | 1244761.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 151588265.0 | 1547011.5 | 1198341.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 2013 | 59151170.0 | 2190784.1 | 1227070.2 | 1 | 0 |
All in all, career lengths are just getting longer, and despite the quality of draft classes, we likely will continue to see even longer careers as time goes on.
Source: Basketball-Reference
Notes:
- ABA data was excluded, but seasons in which players played in both the NBA and ABA were included.
- Adjustments for inflation were made using Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items
- For figures including salaries, draft class years including at least 50 data points were included (which could bias earlier year averages).
- I'm not accounting for games played, as its difficult to easily understand who's on a 10 day contract vs who was just injured.
- For the overall draft pick table, I only included data for picks 1-60, even though there is some data for when there were more rounds in the draft.