The Sweet 16 is here. Let's revisit how we got here (biggest movers), where we are (current matchups), and what is ahead (future win probability/spread projections).
JAM Rank Updates
Inspired by ESPN's look at re-seeding the remaining 16 teams, I decided to compare pre-tourney JAM rankings to current rankings. This will give some insight into which teams JAM thought had the most impressive wins (or loses) in the first week of tourney action.
- Florida (6->3) - JAM was already very high on the Gators but a huge win over Virginia makes them look even better.
- Kansas (12->8) - Strong wins and some underachieving by teams below them moved Kansas up to a title contender.
- South Carolina (33->27) - With a win over Duke, the Gamecocks turned the most heads in the opening weekend.
- USC (45->41) - A close win over highly regarded SMU (by the models) moved up the Trojans.
- MTSU (60->55) - Pulling off the annual 12-5 upset moved them up.
- Northern Kentucky (174->164) - A loss(!) to Kentucky moved them up more spots than anyone else? I guess losing by 9 when the spread is 20 goes a long way.
- Virginia (8->14) - No matter how elite your defense is, if you can't score you can't win.
- Miami (31->35) - A loss to Michigan State drops them down, JAM doesn't know the powers of Izzo.
- Marquette (52->56) - A 20 point loss to South Carolina likely would have moved them down further if the Gamecocks didn't beat Duke.
- Florida Gulf Coast (119->126) - This is a bit surprising given they only lost to FSU by 6 (when the spread was 11.5) - don't question the numbers.
- Villanova (2->5) - The Wildcats are still an elite team even if they couldn't overcome a horrible draw against Wisconsin in the first weekend.
- Wisconsin (13->11) - JAM was already well aware of what the Badgers could do, so they didn't have much room to move up.
- Michigan (17->18) - JAM wasn't as impressed as the media with the Wolverines close wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville (5 points combined).
- Xaiver (34->30) - With two upsets, the Musketeers are the lowest remaining seed (11) but JAM was already fairly high on them.
Sweet 16 Betting Insight
In Vegas looking for a good play? This might be helpful to you:
Below are the JAM win probabilities for all possible remaining matchups:
If JAM were running a sports book, here would be the opening lines for all possible remaining matchups: